RV-ML

RV-ML estimates a planet's orbit from its star's radial velocity curve. Its prediction intervals are calibrated on simulated data and still hold on real stars, because the calibration is reweighted for the gap between simulated and real curves.

• Built on 1,071 RV curves from the NASA Exoplanet Archive
• 90% intervals cover 93% of held-out simulated stars
• Covered all 34 held-out real host stars, with no unbounded intervals
• Noise model fitted to real residuals with a sparse variational GP